Visitor Forecast

Forecast Summary - December 2011

Total visitation to Orlando is expected to increase 5.5 percent, from 51.5 million in 2010 to an estimated 54.3 million visitors in 2011, according to the newly updated destination forecast commissioned by Visit Orlando® from its research vendor, Tourism Economics. The updated forecast reflects the following trends in visitation:

Total visitation to Orlando that combines domestic and international arrivals are expected to increase 5.5 percent, from 51.5 million visitors in 2010 to an estimated 54.3 million in 2011, and increase 1.3 percent in 2012 to an estimated 55.0 million visitors.

Domestic visitation, with 47.8 million visitors in 2010, is expected to increase 5.7 percent to an estimated 50.5 million in 2011 and increase 1.3 percent in 2012 to an estimated 51.2 million visitors.

International visitation is expected to increase 3.0 percent from 3.68 million visitors in 2010 to an estimated 3.79 million visitors in 2011 and increase 1.4 percent in 2012 to an estimated 3.84 million visitors.

Visitation from Canada, Orlando's largest international market with 960,000 visitors in 2010, is expected to increase 3.3 percent to an estimated 990,000 visitors in 2011 and increase 1.8 percent to an estimated 1,010,000 visitors in 2012.

The United Kingdom, which was Orlando's top international market in 2008 until a decline in visitation of 13.3 percent in 2009, is now Orlando's second largest international market with arrivals expected to continue to decline 1.8 percent, from 840,000 in 2010 to an estimated 820,000 visitors in 2011. The forecast turns slightly positive in 2012 with a projected increase of 0.3 percent for an estimated 830,000 visitors.

Overnight convention/group meeting is expected to increase 9.7 percent, from 3.24 million visitors in 2010 to an estimated 3.55 million visitors in 2011 and increase 7.2 percent to an estimated 3.81 million visitors in 2012.

The model used for updating the Orlando visitor forecast for 2011 and 2012 incorporates 3rd quarter 2011 YTD market data and 2nd Quarter 2011 YTD domestic visitor statistics from D.K. Shifflet & Associates. Tourism Economics forecast model is based on economic indicators from Florida, the United States and the global economy. The model used to generate the forecast includes factors such as gross domestic product, employment levels, inflation rates and currency exchange rates. Past and current travel forecasts do not take into consideration the effect of destination advertising on travel.

Tourism Economics is an international economic research, analysis and forecasting company supporting over 100 destinations and companies. The company is a subsidiary of Oxford Economics, one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice.

D.K. Shifflet & Associates Ltd., a travel research firm, specializes in consumer-based travel data. DKS&A's DIRECTIONS® Travel Intelligence SystemSM collects detailed monthly travel data on more than 150,000 trips annual collected from a sample of U.S. households.

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Source: Tourism Economics